Jay Shaver

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 5/19/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 19 May 2012 16:34:00 GMT

Market Notes May 19, 2012: Active listings actually jumped up by more than 10% this last week, now standing at 153 available homes up from 139 the week prior, and listed at an average of $69.17 per square foot. 279 homes are currently in escrow pending close, and another 28 homes closed escrow last week, bringing this year’s sales total now to 813 homes sold, closing at an average of $53.33 per square foot, a pace of which is slightly off of last year’s clip due largely to lower supply of homes available. In fact, last year at this time there over 500 homes available for sale, half of which were short sales, but nonetheless, a much larger inventory than we have today. As many of you who have read my blog for a while now, know that I follow the market statistics closely and there are some interesting numbers I want to share with you. The current median home price for Maricopa is $114,000, and that number is not only a 14% increase from March 2012, but is a staggering 41% increase from just a year ago, when the median home price was $81,000 in April 2011. Also important to note is the fact that homes sold in the last 60 days are getting 98.7% of their original list price, meaning that the days of low balling a home are pretty much over. Another interesting note, of the 227 closed sales for April 2012, 57% were cash deals, 20% were conventional loans, 16% were FHA loans, and 6% were VA loans, so there still remains quite a few active cash buyers on the market whether that be investors, or snowbirds. The meaning of that is that if you are a buyer using financing to purchase the property you may very likely be in competition with cash buyers, so the stronger, and cleaner, that you can write your offer the better chance you have of getting an accepted contract.

Another interesting statistic is that of the 227 closed sales for April, 112 of them, or approximately 50% were on the market less than 30 days, so when you do finally find that home that you like, don’t drag your feet in submitting an offer. This is a changing and competitive market and it’s important to have good information to act on when the time comes to either sell, or buy your home. If you would like more detailed analysis, or have questions on the numbers that I have compiled, please call or shoot me an email anytime. As we approach June, I will begin to compile numbers for May and will have those available as well.

Nationally, Capital Economics has issued a report on the current market conditions of judicial states vs non-judicial states and the crux of the report is that non-judicial foreclosure markets are performing better in terms of price stabilization. Arizona is a non-judicial state, just FYI. Judicial foreclosure states require financial firms to handle default proceedings within an official court of law, while non-judicial foreclosure states offer a set of rules and processes that are streamlined and designed to occur outside of court. While many other factors influence the real estate, ie; credit availability, current demand, etc., the non-judicial process is a much less cumbersome process in streamlining the foreclosure process and results in these home being available for resale in a much quicker time frame, and that excludes the robo signing debacle of 2010 which adversely impacted the foreclosure process in judicial states.

I believe that one of the drivers of our current housing market is a higher level of consumer confidence coupled with the expansion of employment in the local area. The BLS numbers remain similar to the March statistics, but slightly better as April and the beginning of the warmer season typically signals more hiring. States like Arizona, which saw a 0.4% drop in unemployment from March, typically point to a slow recovery to the job market, but an improvement nonetheless, and with the current opening of the Banner Health Summit, and the anticipation of the Harrah’s entertainment complex and Intel, lots of primary residence buyers are emerging onto the market. Obviously current market conditions will make a lot of sellers happy, but it should also not discourage buyers. Values have gone up that’s a fact, but historically, and adjacently, the values are still low with much room to approve. What do I mean by that? Look at the values of other sunbelt states, ie; California, Nevada, Texas, New Mexico and Florida, all of which have housing values 20%-60% higher than those in the Phoenix area, so take that into account when considering your next purchase. The Valley of the Sun is the place to be.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 5/12/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 12 May 2012 15:11:00 GMT

Market Notes May 12, 2012: Active listings remained flat for the week for the first time this year, staying 139 available homes and listed at an average of $69.69 per square foot, a slight fall off from last week. 277 homes are pending close of escrow, which is a slight increase from last week, and 37 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $53.13 per square foot, which is right line with last week and brings this year’s sales total now to 785 homes. It’s important to note that the numbers I compile are strictly for the single family detached homes within the defined subdivisions of Maricopa. If you would like a market analysis for the homes on the acreage, or in the Chandler/Gilbert, please shoot me an email. Another active week in Maricopa, not only in terms of buyer activity, but the trustee auction was very busy this week, a possible indication that banks have finally decided that the economy is on the rebound and now is the time to shed their books of the shadow inventory that has lingered for the last couple of years. This isn’t good news for those waiting on their banks approval for loan modifications. Case in point, two homes that I know of foreclosed this week while the owners were convinced it was just a matter of days before their modification was approved, so if you are a homeowner in that situation, please have a plan B and if you need some assistance – give me a call. Despite the bluster you hear in Washington, very few people actually qualify for these government sponsored programs and in my opinion they actually do more harm than good because it misleads people, so again if you are in this situation, read the fine print and don’t get overly optimistic. Affecting a short sale on your home and absolving yourself from the negative equity of your home is quite possibly your best decision. This is a very favorable environment to employ such a strategy, and you can recover your credit within a 2 or 3 year time frame, which is probably a lot quicker than you will recover your negative equity. Banks are also very agreeable to doing a short sale, and I am very experienced in negotiating with banks, so again please give me a call if you would like more information or if I can be of help in anyway.

Back to the Maricopa market which in many people’s opinion is the undiscovered gem of the Phoenix Valley – and I happen to agree with them. Since the first of the year, the commercial development has been quite robust and now homebuilders are getting busy again to. The jump in the number of new housing construction permits issued by the city of Maricopa from January through April isn’t staggering, but enough to beg the question: Is this a trend that shows a revival of the industry in the city? I think so. In January seven permits were issued, the same number as January 2011. Then, in February, the number increased to 16, double the figure for the same month a year ago. March saw the 2012 total jump to 31, nearly two and a half times more than last year. Last month, 40 new-housing permits were issued – the highest number since January 2010 when there were 50. Four were issued in April last year. That brings the total to 94 for the first four months of the year. Although it is a far cry from the boom years of the mid-2000s, when the figure occasionally topped 500 monthly and even skyrocketed to 791 in August 2005, the increase, when combined with greater activity in the existing home sales market that has occurred in recent months, shows the arrow pointing in the right direction.

The report stated that the city experienced positive growth in 2011, with vacancy rates falling to their lowest level in the two and a half years they have been tracked and that home price appreciation is expected to continue to increase. In fact the Maricopa market realized 20% appreciation from February 2011 – February 2012, a clip of which will certainly flatten over the summer, but that trajectory is sustainable. The report, which can be seen on MaricopaMatters.com, made forecasts of conservative, baseline and aggressive figures for new housing permits. The conservative figure was 80. In the first four months of the year 83 already have been pulled. The baseline figure was 150 and aggressive 360. In 2011, 120 permits were issued.

“The city of Maricopa is in the path of development and we expect Maricopa and Casa Grande, that whole area, to continue to grow,” Court said. “If you look at a broad path of greater Phoenix, Maricopa and Casa Grande are still on the bubble of the next areas of development. They are in the direct path of development, so we would expect, as housing recovers, to see development in those areas to continue.”

With the future looking slightly brighter for the local real estate market, things could improve in retail, as well. Although many factors determine where retail developers decide to expand, Maricopa’s chances are beginning to look better, and with the current grand opening of the Banner Health Summit and on-going construction of the Harrah’s entertainment complex, the Central Arizona College and the new City Hall, it’s easy to see why so many people are choosing Maricopa as their permanent, of secondary home.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 5/5/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 05 May 2012 15:40:00 GMT

Market Notes May 5, 2012: Active listings stayed flat over the last week, with 139 homes currently available this week versus 135 last week, and listed at an average of $70.09 per square foot. The listed average of $70.09 however does mark the highest listed average per square foot in over 5 years. Homes pending close of escrow dropped slightly to 268 and 41 homes closed escrow last week, bringing this year’s sales total now to 748, closing at an average of $52.99 per square foot. The discrepancy of the listed average and the sold average is a result of larger square footage homes; ie: 3000 sq ft+, that are highly distressed and still selling at an average of around $40 per square foot, however the availability of those homes are on the decline. The fact is that the Maricopa market has realized 19% appreciation in the last 12 months, comparable to Phoenix’s 20% appreciation – a clear indication that this area has now moved beyond the housing downturn and is leading the charge back to recovery. In fact, home prices are surging in metro Phoenix, climbing 8 percent in March alone and 20 percent in the past 12 months. The median price of a house in the region climbed to $134,900, according to a new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. The trend is projected to continue throughout the year, although at a slower pace, primarily a result of lower buyer demand which is typical during the hot summer months. Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory at ASU, doesn't expect home prices to continue to climb as fast as they did in March over the next few months. But he projects metro Phoenix's housing appreciation for 2012 to reach 25 percent by September.

Orr credits the turnaround to steep drops in foreclosures and in the number of homes for sale, coupled with an increase in sales. Fewer foreclosures means fewer inexpensive homes for buyers. The number of homes taken back by lenders in metro Phoenix is down 60 percent from March 2011. Housing inventory has dropped steadily during the past year because of a record number of investors snapping up properties out of foreclosure. Home sales are up 35 percent from a year ago as more regular buyers have joined investors in the mix.

"Prices have begun to rise at a fast pace, and bargains are no longer plentiful," Orr said. "Most homes that are priced well are attracting multiple offers within a couple of days, and many are exceeding the asking price." March's price increase was the sixth in a row for Phoenix's housing market. Most real-estate analysts say the streak of rising home prices, along with slower foreclosures, is proof a housing recovery is under way. A growing number of national real-estate analysts say metro Phoenix is leading the U.S.' housing market's recovery. Metro Phoenix's median home price is still at least $130,000 lower than it was during the boom but almost $30,000 higher than it was in August 2011. Comparably, Maricopa median home price sold is $113,189 for the first four months of 2012.

Foreclosures are down Valley wide, and so are the sales of lender-owned homes. Since March 2012, the number of foreclosures resold by lenders has plummeted 61 percent. At the same time, regular sales, new-home sales, investor purchases and short sales have climbed. All those types of transactions have higher median prices. The number of houses on the market across the Phoenix area is down 64 percent from March 2011, and nearly 55% down in Maricopa. Pinal County home prices are up 21.3 percent in price per square foot from March 2011 to March 2012, with Maricopa County prices per square foot up 12.9 percent.

The areas showing the greatest increases are those that suffered the most price damage from the foreclosure wave from 2007 to 2011, Orr said. Examples include El Mirage, up 20 percent in average price per square foot; Maricopa, up 19 percent; San Tan Valley, up 31 percent; Tolleson, up 20 percent; Glendale, up 16 percent; Phoenix, up 17 percent; and Anthem, up 17 percent. In contrast, some areas least affected by foreclosures are still showing price decreases. Examples are Paradise Valley, down 2 percent; Tempe and Fountain Hills, down 3 percent; Sun City West, down 12 percent; and Wickenburg, down 18 percent. Owner-occupied home sales, which have been eclipsed by foreclosures and short sales in recent years, also increased 47 percent from March 2011 to March 2012.

Prices are still below March 2011, but Orr said the trend has reversed recently, with the price per square foot rising 8.1 percent from February to March. The median normal resale price is now $166,650, still 4.8 percent below the $175,000 in March 2011. Great news for those buyers who have already secured their residence and encouraging news for those who are still looking. The upward trajectory of the market is expected to continue albeit at a slower pace, meaning now is the time to target that primary or secondary home and cut a deal, with an eye towards future equity gains. Call or email me anytime if you have questions, or would like more market information.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 4/28/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 28 Apr 2012 15:44:00 GMT

Market Notes April 28, 2012: Active listings plummeted by 10% this last week, dropping to 135 available homes, listed at an average of $69.48 per square foot. Homes pending slipped slightly to 273, and last week was the biggest week for closing thus far this year as 64 homes closed escrow, closing at an average of $53.81 per square foot and bringing this years sales total now to 707, a pace of which is slightly ahead of last years pace. The rise and fall of active listings from week to week may become a summer trend, as buyer demand will remain strong and banks are expected to continue their slow release of distressed properties, so rather than this week being the anomaly, I think we can expect it to be the norm. Most of our winter visitors have left for the summer, but thanks to today’s technology, they are never too far away to remain active and most of them do stay quite active throughout the summer. If you do live out of state and are still trying to secure that secondary, or even primary residence, give me a call and allow me to be your advocate on the ground. Because I live here and work this market almost exclusively, I can inform you of homes not yet listed, giving you a leg up on the competition and hopefully a better opportunity to find the perfect home and the ideal price. Re: values, while the Maricopa market has certainly seen some appreciation over the last 12 months, I think values will flatten over the summer, but nationally, some experts expect more declines. Of course Mr. Shilling is speaking more in terms of national trends, and while Maricopa and the Phoenix area were at one time at the epicenter of the housing crisis, home values here have strengthened, and will only continue to ascend rather than fall, so now is the time for first time home buyers and/or secondary residence buyers to get busy and secure that residence leading to future equity gains. In fact, I believe the next 12-18 months is the window in which buyers have to find the last of the best deals.

More national news in terms of home values remains mixed. While Radar Logic reported home prices in February showed a month-over-month increase, the national real estate data provider sees this trend as possibly being temporary, considering that warm weather and investment buying helped to drive up sales in the northern regions. Home prices increased 1.9 percent over the month ending February 16, according to Radar Logic’s RPX Composite Price, which tracks 25 major metropolitan areas. This increase was bolstered by strong sales in February. Sales transactions for the RPX Composite increased 22.9 percent month-over-month and 16 percent year-over-year through February 16.

“We believe that investment buying and mild weather are contributing to this strength, and both may be temporary,” the Radar Logic report stated, which was authored by Director of Research Quinn W. Eddins.

Since 2009, purchases from corporate investors have increased rapidly in certain metro areas. A leading example of this trend is Las Vegas, where corporate investor purchases increased 1,300 percent while housing transactions increased 264 percent from January 2009 to February 2012. In Miami, purchases from corporate investors increased 714 percent compared to 185 percent for total sales during that same period. In Los Angeles, corporate investor purchases increased 421 percent compared to a 36 percent increase in total sales. In New York, they increased 126 percent while sales increased 69 percent.

The result of increased investment activity has been argued to reap both benefits and disadvantages for home prices. According to Radar Logic, investors, who are primarily interested in REO properties, buy homes at a significant discount, depressing the aggregate price for houses.

“Moreover, investor purchases of distressed properties at heavy discounts have hurt the values of surrounding properties by providing appraisers with low-priced comparable sales,” the report stated.

On the other hand, the influx of corporate investors into metropolitan housing markets, particularly those with high concentrations of foreclosures and large REO inventories, could strengthen aggregate home prices as people become aware of the fact that investors are buying up properties in large quantities, according to the report. Sellers could then have a strong incentive to raise their prices, which could start to firm prices in the market, Radar Logic explained.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 4/21/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 15:18:00 GMT

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Active listings increased slightly over the last week to 150 available homes, listed at an average of $68.68 per square foot. Homes pending fell for the second straight week and now stand at 278 homes waiting close of escrow, and a big week in closings last week as 50 homes were sold at an average of $53.04 per square foot, bringing this years sales total now to 643 homes sold in Maricopa. With the onslaught of summer, the market will have a chance to catch it’s breath following a very busy first quarter, and active listings should continue to increase albeit slowly. A settlement reached last week with the five largest mortgage lenders may help homeowners who are current on their mortgage reduce their principle, but also will serve to pave the way for a smoother foreclosure process, which would lead to more available distressed homes. This settlement stems from the robo signing debacle of 2010 and impacts judicial states more so than non-judicial states of which Arizona is, however principle reduction is the only valid modification program that will make a real difference, and it appears that banks are now seriously considering that option. Under the settlement, the banks committed at least $17 billion toward modifying mortgages for delinquent borrowers. The modifications will include large principal reductions of as much as $100,000 or more for roughly one million homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages and behind on payments. So if you are one of the few homeowners that has been current with their mortgage and still have acceptable DTI ratios, this may be a great time to contact your lender and works towards principle reduction.

Unfortunately though, many homeowners have not been able to remain current with their mortgage payments, primarily due to the struggling economy, and this settlement address’s that issue as well. In some states, delinquent borrowers have been squatting in their homes for quite some time. In Florida, the average time was 861 days, and in New York it was 1,056 days -- close to three years. "Perhaps a million foreclosures could have been pursued last year but weren't," said Rick Sharga, executive vice president for real estate investment company, Carrington Holdings. But that's all about to change, he said. "We're going to see an increase in the speed of foreclosures and a higher number of foreclosure starts." In fact, there are indications that the pace of foreclosures are already starting to pick up. While overall foreclosure activity was down during the first quarter, filings were up 10% in the 26 states where foreclosures must undergo court scrutiny. However, delinquent homeowners are being proactive on that front as well by initiating a short sale and avoiding the foreclosure process. In fact, short sales outpaced bank-owned REO sales in 12 states, including Utah, California, Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Colorado, New York and New Jersey. Also, 32 states saw annual increases in pre-foreclosure sales, with the top five being Georgia (+113 percent), Michigan (+90 percent), Wisconsin (+77 percent), South Carolina (+76 percent) and Utah (+70 percent). Initiating a short sale is a smart move by the homeowner in that it can shorten the credit recovery time of the homeowner, and it can buy them more time in their home allowing them the time needed to make contingency plans. All lenders are agreeable to a short sale but it does require cooperation by the current homeowner, and if you have questions concerning the short sale process, please call or email me, or drop by my office as every Saturday morning I conduct free consultations and an analysis of your particular situation. Recently, Bank of America and GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced efforts to streamline the short sale process. BofA’s change requires a decision on a short sale in less than 3 weeks, which could be very advantageous to those homeowners who may have an auction date established already and need to buy themselves some time. And starting in June, the GSEs are requiring servicers to make a decision on a short sale within 30 days of receiving an offer or an application package from a borrower; if more time is needed, a servicer must provide the borrower with a weekly update and come to a decision no later than 60 days.

Needless to say, the nation has yet to resolve the “housing crisis” that began in 2007, but as we all know, real estate is local and in regards to Maricopa, we are certainly well on the backside of this problem. There will be more distressed inventory hitting the Maricopa market over the next 6 to 12 months and buyers interested in securing those properties will need to act quickly as demand for those homes is very strong. Maricopa has realized nearly 19% appreciation in values over the last 12 months, but with buyer demand softening and supply of distressed homes expected to continue, I think values will flatten over the summer. If you are still looking for that secondary or primary residence, give me a call. I work this market exclusively and would be happy to help you.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 3/11/12

Jay Shaver — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 13:30:00 GMT

Market Notes March 11, 2012: Another week – another 10%+ drop in active listings which now stand at 141 available homes, down from 155 the week prior, and listed at an average of $70.25 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow increased to 294, and another 44 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $52.12 per square foot and bringing this year’s sales total now to 382 homes sold. The Maricopa market remains a very active market in need of more inventory to accommodate the tremendous demand driven by both primary and secondary home buyers. Over the last couple of years, the Arizona market and the Maricopa area to be sure, was largely driven by second home buyers ie:, Canadians and snow birds from North Dakota, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, etc, but with the infusion of an employer base developing around us, primary residence buyers are becoming a factor, and they receive some advantages. Case in point – three very attractively priced HUD homes recently came onto the market and those homes are restricted to primary residence buyers only for the first 30 days. Also, some bank owned homes restrict their properties to primary residence buyers for the first 15 days, so if you are a primary residence buyer, take this into account when looking for the right home and construct your offer accordingly because while those properties are restricted, they still receive multiple offers very quickly. In this competitive market, it’s important to know the nuances of the contract and how to make your offer more attractive to the seller aside from purchase price, so consult with your Realtor, or give me a call – I’d be happy to help.

Regarding the markets within the market, there are currently 224 homes listed as AWC – short sales with at least one offer submitted to the bank, there are 16 actively listed short sales, 3 actively listed HUD homes, 23 actively listed “age restricted” homes in Province, 92 traditional sale homes, and surprisingly there are only 8 actively listed bank owned homes, but more bank inventory is expected to hit the market over the next 6 months. I follow the trustee auction sale closely every day which is the foreclosure process here in Arizona, and since the first of the year, nearly half of the inventory going to foreclosure has been “postponed” on a daily basis, pushing the eventual foreclosure date off another 30-60 days, most likely as a result of deed issues. During the housing run of 2003-2006, so many mortgages were bundled and sold as securities on so many occasions that often the original note holder can not locate the deed in order to foreclose. Ultimate buyers of these properties have little to worry about in terms of title issues, but it’s always a good idea to buy ALTA title insurance as a buyer and if you like more information on that, call or email me at anytime.

Nationally, the housing market is healing according to Capital Economics, but the road to recovery will be a long and gradual one. The research firm expects to see home sales and homebuilding continue with increases, while house prices are expected to finally stop falling later this year. While certain areas of the housing market appear to be moving in a positive direction, Capital Economics still points out that with growth come constraints.

Here are excerpts of issues and explanations analyzed in the report.

Housing supply

“The excess supply has continued to diminish at a dramatic rate. But supply is unlikely to fall
much further when the recent robo-signing mortgage settlement means that many foreclosures could soon be released onto the market.”

“However, we estimate that there are still four million homes in the so-called shadow inventory. At some point, the bulk of these will be put up for sale. Of course, all these foreclosures won’t come onto the market at once. But although they may not boost supply, they will certainly prevent it from falling much further.”

While there are factors hindering growth, the report highlights areas encouraging restoration in the housing sector.

Home sales

“The abundance of heavily-discounted foreclosed homes means that the rebound in sales of existing homes will continue to be stronger than for new homes.”

“The 13 percent rise in existing home sales in the six months to January confirms that a gradual
recovery in housing demand is underway. Even the new homes market has started to get
in on the action, with new sales rising by 11 percent in the last five months. In contrast to 2010, this improvement is not being driven by temporary tax breaks.”

Employment

“And the recent run of better news on jobs, which culminated in the 257,000 gain in private payrolls in January, suggests that the labor market may have finally turned a corner.”

Mortgage rates

“Our forecast that 30-year mortgage rates will remain close to the current record low of 4.1 percent, if not fall a little further, contrasts with other views that rates will rebound to above 5 percent.”

“Indeed, if mortgage rates were to fall a little lower, then the monthly interest and principal payment would decline to a new record low of 11 percent of the median income. That would be down from 25 percent six years ago. Even if mortgage rates were to rise above 5 percent, the initial monthly payment would still not be much of a burden.”

Even with greater affordability due to lower rates and dropping home prices, Capital Economics states that the lingering problem is that many households are unable to take advantage.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 3/4/12

Jay Shaver — Wed, 07 Mar 2012 13:31:00 GMT

Market Notes March 4, 2012: Active listing fell another 10% over the last week, now standing at 155 available home, listed at an average of $66.84 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow dropped slightly to 285, and another 59 homes closed escrow last week bring this years sales total now to 338 homes, closing at an average of $51.43 per square foot. Inventory has dropped by nearly 30% since the beginning of the year but make no mistake there is more to come. Not mentioned in the 155 current active listings is the 207 AWC short sales, most of which will emerge back on the market as either a pre approved short sale, or bank owned property, and also not mentioned is the rather large volume of shadow inventory – those homes in default, either vacant or not, but where the owner has opted not to do the short sale and just let the home revert back to the bank, and I suspect there are at least a few hundred of those properties. Currently though we are working with the available inventory and it is competitive, so don’t drag your feet too long before making an offer on that home you like, many properties receive multiple offers so it’s important to put in your strongest offer right out of the gate, and there are other ways, aside from the purchase price to make your offer attractive, so ask your Realtor for guidance. This current robust market is not only driven by Canadians and snow birds, but primary residence buyers as well, as we are seeing quite an influx of those buyers due to industry base developing around us, namely Intel and Banner Health at this stage, but as time goes on, the College of Central Arizona and the Ak Chin Entertainment center will be a factor as well.

While values have risen in Maricopa, they still remain approximately 30% lower than the Chandler/Gilbert area, and certainly the Ahwatukee area, which has also been a big factor. Many Valley residents are starting to look at Maricopa a little differently now that we are beginning to have the amenities. Because of the 16 mile stretch of the Gila River Indian reservation, the city of Phoenix will never spill into Maricopa, which wasn’t the case with Chandler/Gilbert, nor is it currently the case with Queen Creek, San Tan, or the Buckeye areas. In each of those instances, the Phoenix urban area eventually encapsulated those cities, but that won’t happen here in Maricopa, and yet we are still just 35 minutes away from Sky Harbor airport, so we do have the best of both worlds – our own small town which is just minutes away from everything Phoenix has to offer.

Nationally, the number of homes with negative equity, also known as underwater homes, went up for the 2011 fourth quarter to 11.1 million, or 22.8 percent, Core Logic revealed in a release today. Third quarter numbers showed 10.7 million properties were in negative equity, or 22.1 percent. Borrowers with less than 5 percent equity in their homes, also known as near-negative equity, stood at 2.5 million for the fourth quarter. In total, those with negative equity and near-negative equity equaled 27.8 percent of all residential properties. This figure was also up from the third quarter, when negative and near-negative equity had a combined totaled of 27.1 percent. The negative equity share is back to the same level as Q3 2009, which is when we began reporting negative equity using this methodology. Fleming further explained that the high level of negative equity coupled with the inability to pay is the “double trigger” of default, but with the economic recovery, there should be a reduction in the “inability to pay trigger.”

The states with the highest level of negative equity were Nevada (61 percent), Arizona (48 percent), Florida (44 percent), Michigan (35 percent) and Georgia (33 percent). These five states had a combined average 44.3 percent of the share of negative equity, whereas the remaining states have a combined average negative equity share of 15.3 percent. Out of the 11.1 million borrowers with underwater mortgages, 6.7 million had first liens with negative equity, and the remaining 4.4 million had first and second liens. The average mortgage balance for the first lien borrowers was $219,000, with an underwater average of $51,000, and a loan-to-value ratio of 130 percent. Those who were upside down with first and second liens had an average mortgage balance of $306,000, were upside down by about $84,000, and had an LTV of 138 percent. Nearly 18 million borrowers had an LTV between 80 percent and 125, making them eligible for HARP 1.0. With the implementation of HARP 2.0 in December 2011, the 125 percent cap was removed, widening eligibility for refinancing under the government program to 22 million borrowers based on LTV alone. CoreLogic included 48 million properties with a mortgage, which accounts for over 85 percent of all mortgages in the U.S., when putting together the report

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 2/18/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 17:26:00 GMT

Market Notes February 18, 2012: Active listings tumbled again this last week and now stand at six year low with just 185 available homes on the market, listed at an average of $64.21 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow jumped to 280 and just 29 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $50.34 per square foot, and bringing this year’s sales total now to 238. Despite the current low level of available homes, buyers can be assured that there are more homes soon to emerge on the market and the shadow inventory will keep values low, despite the slight increases over the last six months. Last weeks notice list, those homes that are in default and have received their 90 notice of foreclosure, was a list of nearly 240 homes in Maricopa, and in addition to that, there are 203 homes in Maricopa listed as AWC, meaning short sale homes with one offer submitted to the bank, and historically we can count on approximately 50% of that inventory winding up in foreclosure, so although we are on the back side of this “housing crisis” here in Maricopa, it’s clear that we still have quite a bit of distressed inventory to work through. That being said – don’t miss your chance now to buy that home. The window is clearly closing and current demand far exceeds supply. Case in point – an agent in my office on Tuesday selected 8 homes for a client to preview on Wednesday. On Wednesday morning he checked back on those listings and 7 of them had gone pending with an accepted contract, so if you are an active buyer, and find a home that works for you, don’t delay in writing an offer. The AAR purchase contract allows a ten day inspection period for all buyers, during which time that buyer can back out of the contract, so you are protected and if you don’t have an agent to work with, I encourage you to find one. There are legalities to buying any home, which the agent can advise and protect you against, but more importantly, a good agent will know when to write the offer and how to write the offer to give you the advantage. I live and work in Maricopa exclusively and often times know of homes soon to be available, sometimes giving you the first look opportunity and I would be happy to help – call or email me anytime.

Market Update 2/11/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 14:45:00 GMT

Market Notes February 11, 2012: Active listing have fallen to an all time low this last week, now standing at just 209 available homes in the area, down from 225 the week previous, and down from the 250, which is the previous 3 month average. Those active listings are listed at an average of $63.19 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow jumped by nearly 10% and now stand at 268, and 31 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $49.25 per square foot, and bring this year sales total now to 209. Maricopa has deservedly been identified, by most area home shoppers, as the place to be in the Phoenix Valley. The relative newness of the community, the small town feel, the security of a small town, the proximity to the Phoenix area, the well planned out subdivisions, The up coming attractions and amenities, and last but certainly not least, the low home values, have all combined to attract not only primary residence buyers but many second home buyers as well. Just this last week, another new addition to our community was announced, as construction will begin in June on a biomass plant in Maricopa that will produce enough electricity to power 20,000 homes, and will be the first “green” facility built in the area. The economic development council of Maricopa has made concerted efforts to attract green industries to the area, and this facility may be the impetus needed to attract others. The new biomass facility is just one of many “coming attractions” which include the College of Central Arizona, the Banner Health Summit, the new Maricopa City Hall, and the new Ak Chin Entertainment complex which will be a 126,000 square foot entertainment complex featuring movie theaters, bowling alleys, shops, restaurants, arcades, and an out door ampi theater. So it’s not difficult to see why Maricopa has garnered the bulk of the real estate activity in the Valley, and with that being said, now is the time to help you secure your place in the sun. I have many buyers say that they have waited too long, but that is just not the case, there is plenty of time left to take advantage of this housing market. Have values risen in the last year? Yes, but historically these current home values are still considered very low, and as the economy recovers and expansion continues, today’s current home value will equate to tomorrows equity, but don’t drag your feet too much longer. I believe 2012 will be one our final transition years into a more stable housing market. There is still some distressed inventory to work through – there is still 201 AWC short sales, meaning distressed homes with at least one offer submitted to the bank and historically 50% of those will wind up in foreclosure. Secondly, nearly 50% of the foreclosure homes have been postponed in the last 120 days, primarily die to deed issues, but we can still expect those homes to eventually emerge back on the market, so there is time left, but the window is closing. If you are currently in the market trying to secure that primary or secondary residence, I would be happy to help, just call or email me anytime.

Nationally, a bill proposed by Senator Menendez may be one of the more common sense approaches to the national housing crisis. A proposed bill from Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., would allow underwater borrowers to reduce their loan principal through a federal shared-mortgage-appreciation program. The Senate bill announced Thursday would give lenders a stake in the equity of the home, receiving a fixed share of the increase in home value when later sold or refinanced. The shared-appreciation modifications would go through two "pilot programs" for two years at the Federal Housing Administration and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The bill only applies to loans backed by the FHA or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. It's not known when the bill will reach the Senate floor, according to a spokeswoman in Menendez's office.

"When you owe more than your house is worth through no fault of your own, relief can be hard to come by," Menendez said in a news release. "My bill aims to break this cycle by giving homeowners the relief they are looking for by working with banks to find acceptable solutions for everyone."

Homeowners in the program would reduce their mortgage principal to 95% of the home's reassessed value, as determined by an independent appraiser. The principal would lower to its new value by a third each year for three years, as long as the homeowner makes payments. The lender would get a fixed share in the equity of the home depending on how much they reduce the principal, with a maximum of 50%. Capital improvements later made to the home do not apply. Only primary residences would qualify. The bill also places no underwater limit for homeowners. Reducing principle is the only real way to help underwater homeowners, and this is the first bill to actually address that issue. We will see where it goes.

Market Update February 4, 2012

Jay Shaver — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 15:26:00 GMT

Market Notes February 4, 2012: The busy season feels like it is just now starting to take hold. The first quarter of the year, or at least Jan-Apr is historically the busiest time of the year for AZ real estate and January 2012 was a little sluggish, but considering last weeks market indicators, the activity has picked up considerably. 17 homes went pending just yesterday (Friday Feb. 3) and 50 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $48.40 per square foot, and bring this years sales total now to 175. There are currently 248 homes pending close of escrow and active listings dropped by nearly 10% last week and now stand at 226 available homes, down from 252, and listed at an average of $62.70 per square foot. Here are some interesting bullet points on the Arizona housing market, more specifically the Phoenix area market, which includes Maricopa:

- In every price range, sales prices in $/SF are now higher than a year ago.

- Inventory is still falling below $200,000 and constraining sales volumes.

- Above $200,000, supply is rising and demand remains relatively weak.

- After a noticeable weak patch during the summer, prices have regained strength.

- Lender-owned inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

- Short sales are overtaking foreclosures as the primary mechanism to resolve mortgage debt problems.

There is a tremendous amount of demand for those homes priced at $100K or less in Maricopa, in fact if you are currently looking for a home in that price range you can expect each home to receive multiple offers, and often sell for over list price. The key is to be the first in the door with a strong, committed offer. There are currently many cash buyers on the market, which puts those finance customers at a slight disadvantage, but with the right strategy and knowledge of the market, you can secure that home you desire. My team and I live in and work exclusively in Maricopa and often times know of homes soon to be available, or just listed, which can benefit you as the buyer, so if you would like my assistance in securing that new home, please call or email me anytime. Of the 252 homes currently available, only 58 of them are priced at, or under $100k, so inventory is tight, and demand is strong, be sure your agent is working hard for you.

Inventory at the next level, $100K - $150K is a little more plentiful, with 91 homes listed in this price range, and buyer demand is still strong but not quite as hectic as the those homes $100K and less. Case in point - of the 175 recorded sales thus far this year, 99 of them are homes under $100K, 58 are homes priced between $100K-$150K, and 18 are homes above $150K.

The inventory of distressed homes and/or bank owned homes has fallen quite a bit over the last year, however there is still a fair amount of shadow inventory remaining (those homes in default but not yet foreclosed on), in fact there are 196 short sale homes listed as AWC, meaning that they have at least one offer if not multiple offers, and historically 50% of that inventory winds up in foreclosure and emerges on the market as a bank owned home, so we are not quite through with the “housing crisis” but I believe we are certainly on the back half. In fact, Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, and one of the reasons: loosening credit. The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago. However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability. Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings. Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.” So if you have been waiting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to buy – it’s now, and I would like to help. Call or email me anytime.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 1/28/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 14:08:00 GMT

Market Notes January 28, 2012: A busy week on the market, but active listings remained consistent at 252, down from 254 last week, and listed at an average of $60.79 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow stand at 238, a mirror image of last week, and another 35 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $48.70 per square foot and bringing this years sales total now to 128 homes. 2012 may be one of our final transition years from a distressed housing market to a more normal traditional resale market, but one local observation, and one piece of national news suggests that the shadow inventory of distressed homes may vary well bleed into next year. Locally, nearly 50% of the foreclosure homes at the daily trustee auction have been postponed this last month, most likely as a result of deed issues or pending short sale contracts, but that number of postponements is unusually high. The postponement is usually just a week or two out, but lately we have been seeing 30-60 days postponements which again is unusual. This is also at a time when the foreclosure starts are down considerably year over year. The number of foreclosure actions initiated in 2011 was down 38.7 percent compared to 2010, according to a new report from Lender Processing Services. The company reported that delinquencies at the end of 2011 were down nearly 8 percent from the previous year and were 25 percent below their peak in January 2010. However, the overall foreclosure inventory remains near historic highs, at 4.11 percent as of the end of December.

The numbers illustrate the impact of foreclosure processing delays brought on by the robo-signing controversy that surfaced in the fall of 2010, the impact of which remains strong mostly in judicial states. LPS says foreclosure inventories in judicial states remain 2.5 times that of non-judicial, while foreclosure sale rates in non-judicial states stood at approximately four times that of their judicial counterparts in December. The company also found that half of all loans in foreclosure in judicial states have not made a payment in more than two years compared to 28 percent in non-judicial states. Still, on average, LPS says pipeline ratios – which is the amount of time it would take to clear the inventory of loans seriously delinquent and in foreclosure at the current rate – have declined significantly from earlier this year, again suggesting that 2012 may finally be the recovery year we have all been waiting for. The company’s data show that the states with the largest declines in non-current loans are all non-judicial, including Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and California.

Buyers currently on the market should understand that while the distressed inventory is waning, the “distressed” values will continue, as real appreciation will take a while to get a foot hold. This current Arizona market continues to be a once in a generational opportunity to take advantage of historically low home values and an improving economy which will serve your financial interests very well over the long run, and I think many primary residence buyers have discovered this, and are taking advantage of that dynamic as well as a more favorable lending environment. In fact, Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, and one of the reasons? Loosening credit. Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings. Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.” In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV. So conditions are favorable to those first time home buyers, as well as second home buyers that would like to leverage their capital. If you would like help navigating this real estate market, please call or shoot me an email at anytime. I would like to assist you find your place in the Sun.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 1/21/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 21 Jan 2012 13:49:00 GMT

Market Notes January 21, 2012: Active listings fell slightly over the last week in a market that is starting to heat back up. Available homes listed now stand at 254, listed at an average of $60.90 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow currently stand at 238, and another 35 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $48.39 per square foot, and bringing this years sales total now to 93 homes sold. Our winter weather thus far this year has been nearly perfect, sunny skies and high 60 degree temperatures have been the norm, and has facilitated the busy home shopping season very well. In addition to that, there is a tremendous amount of excitement about all of the development going on in the area that is soon to make Maricopa one of the best communities in the Phoenix area to live in. Intel is completing their new Fab Plant, which is just a ten minute drive away; the Banner Health Summit is putting the finishing touches on their 40,000 square foot health facility; the College of Central Arizona has begun building their new main campus and across the street from that, the City of Maricopa has begin construction on the new City Hall; the Ak Chin/Harrah’s Casino group continues to construct their new and ambitious 126,000 square foot entertainment complex featuring bowling alleys, movie theaters, restaurants, shops and an outdoor ampitheater, and the Gila River group has just signed on to build a large outdoor outlet mall featuring restaurants and lot’s of shopping – so it’s easy to see why so many people are interested in our small town. And that being said, values are slightly on the rise, but that being said, there still remains a fair amount of time for primary residence, and second home buyers to take advantage of historically low home values. While the foreclosure market has slowed, the amount of shadow inventory (those homes still in the foreclosure process) will ensure that those interested in purchasing still have approximately 12-18 months to secure one of those properties, however the demand in that area is substantial, so if you are actively pursuing a bank owned, or short sale home in the $60K to $90K range, it’s important to act quickly. Most, if not all of these properties receive multiple offers within the first day or two, so don’t delay in getting your offer in. I can tell you that in Arizona, the buyer has a ten day inspection period following the acceptance of a residential purchase contract, during which they can back out of the deal fro nearly any reason, so there are protections. If you would like more information regarding the process, please call or email me at anytime.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 1/14/12

Jay Shaver — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 17:43:00 GMT

Market Notes January 14, 2012: Active listings inched up over the last week, now standing at 262 homes currently available, listed at an average of $61. 52 per square foot, down slightly from last weeks average of $63.59. 227 homes are currently pending close of escrow and only 28 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $47.40 per square foot and bringing this years sales total to 58 homes. It’s important to mention that the numbers I compile are strictly for the homes within the defined subdivisions of Maricopa, so if you would like a market analysis for homes on the acreage, please call or shoot me an email. As mentioned before, 2011 was the second best year in terms of residential resales for the Maricopa market, as 2,585 homes were sold, comparing only to 2009 wherein 2,788 homes closed escrow. I thought I would break down the 2011 sales into four categories: single level homes under 2000 square feet, and over 2000 square feet to include two sub categories; those with and without pools. Also, two story homes under 3000 square feet, and over 3000 square feet, with the same sub categories; those with pools and those without. These numbers will give you a broader understanding of the current market and demand for these homes:

Single Level: 2000 square feet or less

· No Pool – 924 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $45.34

· With Pool – 120 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $60.31

Single Level: 2000 square feet or more

· No Pool – 304 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $50.91

· With Pool – 82 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $62.59

Two Story Homes: 3000 square feet or less

· No Pool – 665 homes sold

· Avg Sold price per square foot - $36.30

· With Pool – 108 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $47.38

Two Story Homes: 3000 square feet or more

· No Pool – 267 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $34.65

· With Pool – 108

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $45.12

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 1/12/12

Jay Shaver — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 16:31:00 GMT

Market Notes January 7, 2012: Active listings have built up, and buyer activity in the first week of the year has been brisk. The number of active listings in the area currently stand at 259, listed at an average of $63.59 per square foot, there is currently 228 homes pending close of escrow, and 30 homes closed escrow in this first week of the year, closing at an average of $48.51 per square foot, which is a solid gain from the $43 per square foot closings just 6 months ago, but still a very attractive number to buyers currently on the market, especially compared to the $60+ per square foot average in many other similar Phoenix markets. There is also still an anticipated wave of more distressed properties to come onto the market stemming from the “robo signing” debacle of last summer, and the number of foreclosure postponements over the last four months of 2011 that resulted from that issue. Another source of distressed properties not mentioned very often are those homes currently tied up in bankruptcy courts that will eventually be released, which will add to the volume that banks are still working through. This is all good news to the many interested buyers looking to take advantage of Phoenix’s housing market. In fact, the number of homes that resold in the greater Phoenix area rose for the 12th consecutive month in November, according to DataQuick.

When reviewing property sales in the combined Maricopa-Pinal counties, the data firm said 7,766 new and resale homes and condos closed in escrow. That is down 3.5% from October, but up 9% from last year, DataQuick said. Maricopa County houses the city of Phoenix, and is the fourth-most populous county in the country with more than 3 million residents. Sales of home priced between $100,000 and $200,000 rose the most in the region, with closings jumping 11.4% from a year ago. Closings on homes sold for less than $100,000 increased 4.6% year-over-year, while sales of homes priced from $200,000 to $600,000 grew a slight 0.7%.

In addition, sales of homes worth more than $800,000 rose 4.9% from last year, suggesting renewed interest in luxury homes when compared to mid-level sales. November's median sales price was at its highest point in a year, hitting $127,500. Investors and vacation homebuyers acquired 43.4% of the Phoenix areas homes sold during the month, paying a median price of $103,000, up slightly from $102,000 a year earlier. Cash buyers represented 40.8% of all November sales, up from 40.3% last year, according to DataQuick. Those buyers paid a median price of $96,000, up from $88,500 in October and $95,000 a year ago. Cash buyers and investors leaned towards distressed properties. Foreclosure resales represented 38.5% of November sales, while short-sales made up 15.9% of all resale activity.

During the month, lenders foreclosed on 3,307 homes, up 16.2% from October and 9.5% higher than a year earlier, and as I said earlier, there are more foreclosures to come, so if you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to buy – IT’S NOW! Let me know if I can be of help.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 12/18/11

Jay Shaver — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 14:03:00 GMT

Market Notes December 18, 2011: Active listings fell slightly last week, standing now at 232 available homes, listed at an average of $60.36 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow jumped up to 256 from last weeks 238 homes pending, and 29 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $44.16 per square foot. So it was a busier week than the week prior, but a slower week than what we have averaged throughout the year, however that is typical this time of year as many people turn their attention to family, friends and the holidays. And that being said I would like to take a minute and wish all of you a very Merry Christmas and another New Year of health, wealth and prosperity. I have many blessing to be thankful for – a healthy and wonderful family and lots of friends, many of whom are previous clients that I had the privilege to assist either as a buyer or seller, and I hope and pray that I have the opportunity to meet, and help out, many more of you in the years to come. This will be the last market update for 2011, and my next update will be in a couple of weeks – January 1, 2012. And can you believe it is going to be 2012 already! Where does the time go? But I believe 2012 will be a very exciting year as the Banner Health Summit and the Intel Fab plant come on line and progress continues on the CAC campus and the Ak Chin Entertainment complex. Maricopa will certainly be a fun place to be.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 12/11/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 13:05:00 GMT

Market Notes December 11, 2011: A very slow week in terms of closings suggests that the Holidays are soon upon us and most everyone’s focus is now on other matters. Only 14 homes closed escrow last week, quite a drop from last week’s 64 closings, and closing at an average of $44.19 per square foot. Active listings fell slightly to 242 available homes, listed at an average of $59.90 per square foot, and homes pending remained consistent at 238. Year to date, 2,405 homes have closed escrow in Maricopa, which outpaces last years sale total, but falls short of 2009’s record year. It’s important to mention that the numbers I compile are for those single family residences within the defined subdivisions of Maricopa, if you would like market information for homes on the acreage, or the patio homes in Province, please call or shoot me an email. As most anyone can tell you, the Maricopa market has been very busy the last few years, in fact since 2009, approximately 7,300 homes have exchanged hands, the majority of those of course being distressed properties either in foreclosure, or sold as a short sale, and I believe buyers can expect more distressed properties to come onto the market over the next 12-18 months. However the sign of a changing market is the emergence of new builds which are once again becoming a market factor. There are currently 15 actively listed new builds in the area, courtesy of DR Horton and Meritage, two very good builders who have weathered the storm, and 25 of those new builds have sold in the last 90 days. Meritage purchased the Province subdivision form Engle Homes approximately 2 years ago, and has done a great job bringing stability and a new focus on green energy homes to what was awarded the best active adult community in the United States back in 2006, and DR Horton continues building their subdivision of Homestead, a master planned community located just southeast of Rancho El Dorado. With the emergence of new builds, the Maricopa market now has quite a range of product for the discernible buyer to choose from - foreclosed and pre foreclosure homes (short sales), investor owned move-in ready homes, and now new builds complete with warranties and green energy technology. Couple that with the developing employer base and the soon to be added amenity of the Ak Chin Entertainment Complex, and it’s not difficult to see that the City of Maricopa is establishing itself as one of Phoenix’s best satellite community.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 12/4/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 20:40:00 GMT

Market Notes December 4, 2011: An active week for Maricopa Real Estate – new listings increased by nearly 15% and 64 homes closed escrow last week, so it’s safe to say that our winter season has officially kicked into gear. Active listings now stand at 254, listed at an average of $61.55 per square foot, homes pending did decline a bit, now standing at 232, and as previously mentioned, 64 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $44.47 per square foot, bring this years sales total now to 2,391. Here are some interesting bullet points on the Arizona housing market, more specifically the Phoenix area market, which includes Maricopa:

- In every price range, sales prices in $/SF are now higher than a year ago.

- Inventory is still falling below $200,000 and constraining sales volumes.

- Above $200,000, supply is rising and demand remains relatively weak.

- After a noticeable weak patch during the summer, prices have regained strength.

- Lender-owned inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

- Short sales are overtaking foreclosures as the primary mechanism to resolve mortgage debt problems.

90% of the Maricopa market is $200K or less, which helps explain the flurry of activity over the last couple of years, not too mention the newness of the community, and the developing employment and entertainment centers. The employment centers of Intel, Banner Health Summit and Harrah’s Casino are continuing to bring in more and more traditional home buyers, and the continued low home values, amenities, and small town feel of Maricopa continue to attract winter visitors, so I will admit my bias but arguably, Maricopa is one of the best satellite communities of the Phoenix area, if not the best and I encourage you to come visit us if you haven’t done so already. I think it’s also safe to say that Maricopa has weathered the housing crisis and has reached the bottom in terms of values

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 11/27/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 15:02:00 GMT

Market Notes November 27, 2011: The pace of the Maricopa market has been remarkably consistent over the last 120 days, with active listings holding steady in the low to mid 200’s, homes pending in the mid 200’s and 35-45 homes closing escrow nearly every week. This week’s numbers are no different – there are currently 222 available homes listed in Maricopa, listed at an average of $60.57 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow stand at 243, and another 37 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $44.06 per square foot, and brings this years sales total now to 2,327 homes, which has already outpaced last years sales total of 2,273, but off the pace of 2009, wherein 2,788 homes were sold. Because of the pace of the market, and the strength of buyer demand, values are inching up, but that shouldn’t deter current buyers, or lead them into thinking that they have missed their opportunity, as there is quite of bit of distressed inventory still to hit the market. Aside from the shadow inventory the banks are still working through, there are currently 213 short sales noted as AWC, meaning that they do have an offer with the bank, but historically you can expect about half of those short sales to wind up in foreclosure. I do have to mention though that that dynamic could change as many banks are now working short sales more effectively, and with more urgency in approving them, so 2012 could be the year of the short sale – so if you are a buyer that has shied away from short sales in the recent past because of the lengthy process, you may want to rethink that. My team and I live in Maricopa and work this area almost exclusively, so if you need help as a buyer navigating this market, we’d love to help. Aside from the central location, newness of the community and the small town feel, what’s really attractive about Maricopa now is the continued selection of homes at historic low values and the developing amenities and employment centers in the area. The Banner Health Summit is really starting to take shape and will open in 2012, the College of Central Arizona plans to break ground in December, Intel continues work on their new fab plant scheduled to open next year, and the Ak Chin/Harrah’s Casino group has just broken ground on a 162,000 square foot entertainment complex which will include 12 movies theaters, a 24 lane bowling alley and an outdoor ampitheater, situated amongst other restaurants and other shops. There has never been a better time to find your place in the sun and I’d like to help – call or email me anytime.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 11/20/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 14:03:00 GMT

Market Notes November 20, 2011: The number of active listings fell again last week, now standing at 228 available homes, listed at an average of $60.48 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow stayed consistent at 245, and only 21 homes closed escrow last week, the smallest number of closings in nearly 4 months, closing at an average of $44.02 per square foot. In addition to the 228 available listings, there are 214 short sale listings noted as “AWC”, meaning one offer is submitted to the bank for approval, with the possibility of one or more offers in a backup position, and for buyers that have been having a difficult time securing a home, either through the multiple counter process with bank owned homes, or losing short sale offers to eventual foreclosure, writing a backup offer can be a smart strategy. Often times the buyer with the first offer withdraws before bank approval, giving those in the back up position the opportunity to purchase the home at the bank approved price. There is very little risk with this strategy, as there is no earnest deposit required, and the buyer can decline the banks approved price and choose not to perform, so throwing out a few back up offers is certainly worth the effort. As many of our clients can attest to, and probably just as obvious to those of you who have been following the market, home values in the Maricopa market have increased over the last year or two, and that fact has some buyers who have not yet secured a primary, or secondary home, a little distressed, but it’s important to keep some perspective. While home values two years ago were, on average, 10%-15% lower than they are today, in the long run, 5-10 years from now, today’s value is still quite low, and the prospects for substantial equity gains is still in play, and a huge factor for those buyers considering current purchases. Maricopa is still a very young community, and as our growth continues, home values will continue to rise accordingly, and helping a great deal with that growth, will be the addition of the Banner Health Summit and the College of Central Arizona next year, the continued expansion of Intel, and the recent announcement of the Ak Chin Entertainment Center, which is also planned to open next year. These additions to our community will not only serve to make Maricopa an even better place to raise a family, but also a safe and fun community to have a second home for that “winter get away”. If you would like help navigating your way through this very active market, please give me a call - I work and live in Maricopa, and find this community to be second to none.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 11/5/11

Jay Shaver — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 14:46:00 GMT

Market Notes November 5, 2011: Active listings fell slightly once again this last week, now standing at 228 available homes, listed at an average of $61.20 per square foot, a listing average of which is the highest of the year. Homes pending close of escrow dropped slightly to 241, and 64 homes closed escrow last week, a very strong number, closing at an average of $44.24 per square foot. Notice the discrepancy of the listing average per square foot and the closing average per square foot - this is a result of the current disparity between the premium homes vs the more distressed properties. For example, a 3900 square foot, two story home in an average neighborhood, with little to no improvements, possibly banged up a bit, and no landscaping, may sell for around $35 per square foot, while a very desirable home; ie; single level with granite counter tops, above average neighborhood, pool, tile, etc. will sell for upwards of $75 per square foot. This is the current state of the Maricopa market, and while some buyers may shy away from paying upwards of $75 per square foot, they need to realize that once the market fully recovers, that home will be valued at north of $100 per square foot, so despite the increase in values over the last year or so, the Maricopa housing market is still ripe with historically low valued homes that will bring strong equitable gains down the road.

The other factor on the market is the emergence of the primary residence buyer as a result of a growing employer base. Intel continues it’s development of their new fabrication plant which is expected to bring thousands of new people to the area. The Banner Health Summit and the new College of Central Arizona will also bring more prospective primary home buyers to the area once their projects are completed, and the largest employer in the area, Harrah’s Casino, just completed their new 5 story hotel and business is strong. In fact, Harrah’s Ak-Chin Casino Resort is the largest contributor to the Pinal County economy, generating more than $205.3 million in economic activity in 2010, according to a study commissioned by the Ak-Chin Indian Community earlier this year. Nearly one-half of the total Ak-Chin Indian Community’s direct and indirect economic output of $437 million comes from the casino and hotel. So now is the time to secure your footing in what is arguably Phoenix’s best kept secret – Maricopa.

Nationally, and even locally, if this stagnant economy continues, the higher income demographics of the housing market will be the next casualty. Private investors in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) comprised of jumbo mortgage loans are dealing with a greater risk of strategic defaults, according to Moody’s. The company’s analysts base this assumption on the fact that jumbo RMBS have large populations of current borrowers with high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. Although it has by far the fewest delinquencies among outstanding loans, the jumbo sector has the potential for the highest volatility in losses going forward, Moody’s concluded.

“This is because it features a high number of current borrowers that are underwater on their mortgages and are more susceptible to default if the housing market does not turn around,” the agency explained. According to Moody’s the subprime sector faces the lowest potential for future performance deterioration because more of its weaker borrowers are already delinquent or have defaulted, leaving less room for losses to increase substantially. The company’s RMBS data show that defaults among always-current subprime borrowers have declined substantially since the beginning of 2010, indicating that the remaining borrowers are getting progressively stronger.

The jumbo sector, on the other hand, still faces the potential for a large increase in defaults. Unlike in the subprime sector, the stronger borrowers are the ones that have already left the jumbo pools rather than the ones that remain, Moody’s explained. Over 80 percent of jumbo loans are still current, but more than half of those borrowers are underwater on their mortgages and that proportion has risen significantly over the past few years, according to Moody’s report. Since home prices have been fairly stable in 2011, Moody’s says the increasing proportion of underwater jumbo borrowers likely reflects the ability of the stronger borrowers to refinance and exit the mortgage pools. Moody’s notes that default rates among always-current borrowers have not come down in the jumbo sector as much as in the subprime sector, meaning the pool of current borrowers has not strengthened as much over time.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 10/30/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 13:41:00 GMT

Market Notes October 30, 2011: Active listings dropped slightly again this last week and now stand at 234 available homes, listed at an average of $59.13 per square foot, the lowest level of available homes of anytime during this last year. Homes pending Homes pending dipped to 246, and 43 homes closed escrow this last week bringing this year’s sales total now to 2,174, which is not quite the pace of 2009, but close. The Maricopa market, as with some other markets in the Phoenix Valley, has been extremely active over the last few years - in fact since 2008, approximately 9,400 single family residences have been sold, and considering that Maricopa has approximately 16,000 rooftops, it’s not difficult to realize that we are on the back side of this housing crisis, at least for the Maricopa area. That being said, values will continue to flat line, and there is more distressed inventory to sort through, so buyers still hoping to take advantage of the market, have about another 12-18 months to take advantage of this historically low valued market. One of the factors fueling this buying activity in the Phoenix Valley, are the baby boomers, who begin retiring this year, and are looking to secure their Place in the Sun, and when compared to all other comparable sun belt states; CA, NV, NM, TX, and even FL, Arizona not only offers the best values, but arguably the cleanest, newest, and best governed municipalities.

Phoenix-area homes sales in September jumped 17.7% from the year-ago period, spurred by an increase in home sales in the sub-$100,000 market. In September, the Phoenix area recorded 8,661 new and resale home and condo sales. Compared to August, sales fell 9.7%. But experiencing sales declines between August and September is normal, according to Data Quick. The research firm's market outlook covers home sales in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and is the fourth most populous county in the country, and Pinal County in the central part of Arizona.

September sales in the below $150,000 price range jumped 22.8% over September 2010, while deals for homes under $100,000 increased 32.1% over last year. Sales in the $200,000-to-$600,000 range showed a gain of 9.8% over last year, while transactions valued over $500,000 fell 3.7%. In the over-$800,000 market, sales fell 4.6% year-over-year. Buyers paid a median home sales price of $124,500 in September, up 5.2% from August. The August median price is 52.9% above the peak sales level of $264,000 reached in June 2006.

Activities driven by investors also declined last month. Foreclosure resales, cash-buying activity and lender repossessions also fell. Foreclosure homes and short sales, meanwhile, represented 61.2% of the Phoenix area resale market in September, and will continue to comprise the majority at least through the next year, but if you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to buy, wait no longer.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 10/23/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 13:00:00 GMT

Market Notes October 23, 2011: Last weeks gains proved to be this week’s losses. Active listing dropped by 10% this last week, after gaining nearly 16% the week before, and now stand at 242 available homes, listed at an average of $58.72 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow held steady at 253, and last week saw the lowest number of weekly closings for the entire year as only 15 homes closes escrow, bringing this years sales total now to 2,131, closing at an overall average $43.85 per square foot. All indications are that banks are on the verge of releasing more inventory, and following the robo signing scandal of this last summer, have a lot of inventory that has been backed up in the pipeline. Strong demand over the last year has pushed values up slightly, but the continued strong presence of short sales, and the anticipated push of bank inventoried homes, will keep values flat over the next six months at least. The national housing crisis has been the primary driving factor of this recession, and prolonging the resolution of it, is staling any recovery efforts, therefore the banking industry and the federal government are looking again at possible solutions.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 10/16/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 14:10:00 GMT

Market Notes October 16, 2011: Active listings dropped slightly, after last weeks rather large gain, and now stand at 264 available homes, listed at an average of $58.31 per square foot. Homes pending inched up to 251, and 50 homes closed escrow last week, continuing that trend, and closings now stand at 2,116 year to date, closing at an average of $44.17 per square foot. Buyer activity remains fairly strong, but I do expect the supply of available homes to trend upwards based on recent reports of foreclosure activity. I don’t expect us however to reach the large number of available homes that we experienced in 2010, and early 2011, but buyers will still have a decent selection of homes to choose from and with values currently flat lining, prices will remain very attractive as well. There are currently just 31 actively listed bank owned homes, 13 available HUD homes, 61 short sales listed as “active”, and 214 short sales listed as “AWC, indicating that they at least one offer on the home. Many of the currently listed short sales do wind up as foreclosed, and bank owned properties, but they can be a good strategy for patient buyers, and I do expect short sale properties to continue to be a large factor on the market considering the stagnant economy.

Maricopa Arizona market update 10/9/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 09 Oct 2011 14:32:00 GMT

Market Notes October 9, 2011: Active listings increased by nearly 17% last week, the largest increase in over 8 months, and now stand at 271 available homes, listed at an average of $55.75 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow dropped slightly to 248, and another 33 homes closed escrow last week bringing this years sales total now to 2,066, closing at an average of $43.74 per square foot. As mentioned last week, the banks are again beginning to release inventory following the summer slow down caused by the robo signing debacle, and I think we can expect this trend to continue through the 4^th quarter of this year. More short sales are also appearing on the market daily, a sign that the troubled housing crisis and sputtering economy are still with us. However buyer demand remains strong, and with the announcement last week that the Feds will start buying mortgage backed securities again, lending restrictions might lessen a bit, allowing more people the opportunity to reenter the housing market, and considering the expansion of many employers in the area, this will be welcome news to primary residence buyers. Another development in the housing industry is the possibility of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac becoming landlords. Thus the government sent out a request for information in August asking how a government rental program might work. Surprisingly, the industry responded with enthusiasm, submitting a slew of proposals now under consideration. Suggestions include lease-to-own options, rent-and-hold, and joint profit sharing.

Radar Logic a research and analytics firm that submitted an RFI, suggests the government engage in partnerships with property managers while retaining ownership of the property in order to ensure the government recoups some of its losses when properties appreciate in the future. While selling homes to owner-occupants remains the most desirable option, “those who want the distressed and vacant homes to be purchased by homeowners are not dealing with the reality of our current economic situation,” states an RFI submitted by John Burns Real Estate Consulting “The question they should answer is: Would you rather live next to a renter or have your house value fall further.”

“The alternative to adopting a policy to rent out REO is to allow for continued vacancy and distressed home sales, which will contribute to falling home prices,” Burns states in the RFI. Burns also addresses a widespread concern regarding pricing on properties sold to investors. Some worry that the GSEs will sell bulk properties at a significant discount, further depressing prices rather than stabilizing the market. Like many proponents of a government rental program, Burns suggests implementing some restrictions on how or when investors may eventually sell these properties.

And finally, and as a tribute to the chaos that is America right now, I submit the following for your amusement.

The Occupy Wall Street protestors finally released a manifesto this week. According to their own mission statement, the Occupy Wall Street crowd blames the street for everything plaguing the universe: from foreclosures to job losses. Not to mention, unspecified abuses against "non-human animals."

Essentially, their manifesto is short on specifics and fails to grasp the basic irony of their situation. That irony being the fact that while the protestors play the role of average man on the street — other, real Americans are in those buildings earning salaries to feed themselves and their families.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 10/2/11

Jay Shaver — Sun, 02 Oct 2011 13:24:00 GMT

Market Notes October 2, 2011: Another week, another very consistent trend in the market numbers. Active listings dropped slightly from 251 last week to 232 available homes, listed at an average of $55.21 per square foot, homes pending fell to 256, and another 36 homes closed escrow last week bringing this years sales total now to 2,033. The number of closings each week has stayed remarkably consistent over the last 3 months, as has active listings, suggesting that the market has found a rythym that is agreeable to both buyers and sellers. The banks are expected to begin releasing more inventory in the fourth quarter here in Arizona, following the delay caused by the robo signing debacle. Many distressed homes were caught up in the pipeline following the industry wide ban on robo signing earlier this summer. Robo signing was a process wherein, many banks were simply rubber stamping the files of the homes in an effort to speed up the foreclosure process. Unfortunately, some homes were foreclosed on that should have never been, and some lenders found themselves in some legal hot water. As a result, the industry banned the practice, and all of those files that had been robo signed were recalled, and a slow stead process of reevaluation began. This had less impact in Arizona, then it did in other states, but obviously we felt the effect as well, so expect to see an increasing amount of bank owned inventory over the next few months. That being said, buyer activity is very strong, and has been all year long, so if you are a buyer, it’s important to watch the market daily and when, and if you see a property that piques your interest, let me, or your realtor know soon. Many of these properties receive multiple offers, and it’s usually the first one in that gets the best chance. It’s also important to know the market comps for the home, or homes you are considering, before submitting your offer, and if you would like help with that, please shoot me an email on the home you are considering and I will send you a 90 day sell through report on comparable homes.