Jay Shaver

Market Update 2/11/12

2012-02-11T14:45:00Z

Market Notes February 11, 2012: Active listing have fallen to an all time low this last week, now standing at just 209 available homes in the area, down from 225 the week previous, and down from the 250, which is the previous 3 month average. Those active listings are listed at an average of $63.19 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow jumped by nearly 10% and now stand at 268, and 31 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $49.25 per square foot, and bring this year sales total now to 209. Maricopa has deservedly been identified, by most area home shoppers, as the place to be in the Phoenix Valley. The relative newness of the community, the small town feel, the security of a small town, the proximity to the Phoenix area, the well planned out subdivisions, The up coming attractions and amenities, and last but certainly not least, the low home values, have all combined to attract not only primary residence buyers but many second home buyers as well. Just this last week, another new addition to our community was announced, as construction will begin in June on a biomass plant in Maricopa that will produce enough electricity to power 20,000 homes, and will be the first “green” facility built in the area. The economic development council of Maricopa has made concerted efforts to attract green industries to the area, and this facility may be the impetus needed to attract others. The new biomass facility is just one of many “coming attractions” which include the College of Central Arizona, the Banner Health Summit, the new Maricopa City Hall, and the new Ak Chin Entertainment complex which will be a 126,000 square foot entertainment complex featuring movie theaters, bowling alleys, shops, restaurants, arcades, and an out door ampi theater. So it’s not difficult to see why Maricopa has garnered the bulk of the real estate activity in the Valley, and with that being said, now is the time to help you secure your place in the sun. I have many buyers say that they have waited too long, but that is just not the case, there is plenty of time left to take advantage of this housing market. Have values risen in the last year? Yes, but historically these current home values are still considered very low, and as the economy recovers and expansion continues, today’s current home value will equate to tomorrows equity, but don’t drag your feet too much longer. I believe 2012 will be one our final transition years into a more stable housing market. There is still some distressed inventory to work through – there is still 201 AWC short sales, meaning distressed homes with at least one offer submitted to the bank and historically 50% of those will wind up in foreclosure. Secondly, nearly 50% of the foreclosure homes have been postponed in the last 120 days, primarily die to deed issues, but we can still expect those homes to eventually emerge back on the market, so there is time left, but the window is closing. If you are currently in the market trying to secure that primary or secondary residence, I would be happy to help, just call or email me anytime.

Nationally, a bill proposed by Senator Menendez may be one of the more common sense approaches to the national housing crisis. A proposed bill from Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., would allow underwater borrowers to reduce their loan principal through a federal shared-mortgage-appreciation program. The Senate bill announced Thursday would give lenders a stake in the equity of the home, receiving a fixed share of the increase in home value when later sold or refinanced. The shared-appreciation modifications would go through two "pilot programs" for two years at the Federal Housing Administration and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. The bill only applies to loans backed by the FHA or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. It's not known when the bill will reach the Senate floor, according to a spokeswoman in Menendez's office.

"When you owe more than your house is worth through no fault of your own, relief can be hard to come by," Menendez said in a news release. "My bill aims to break this cycle by giving homeowners the relief they are looking for by working with banks to find acceptable solutions for everyone."

Homeowners in the program would reduce their mortgage principal to 95% of the home's reassessed value, as determined by an independent appraiser. The principal would lower to its new value by a third each year for three years, as long as the homeowner makes payments. The lender would get a fixed share in the equity of the home depending on how much they reduce the principal, with a maximum of 50%. Capital improvements later made to the home do not apply. Only primary residences would qualify. The bill also places no underwater limit for homeowners. Reducing principle is the only real way to help underwater homeowners, and this is the first bill to actually address that issue. We will see where it goes.

Market Update February 4, 2012

2012-02-04T15:26:00Z

Market Notes February 4, 2012: The busy season feels like it is just now starting to take hold. The first quarter of the year, or at least Jan-Apr is historically the busiest time of the year for AZ real estate and January 2012 was a little sluggish, but considering last weeks market indicators, the activity has picked up considerably. 17 homes went pending just yesterday (Friday Feb. 3) and 50 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $48.40 per square foot, and bring this years sales total now to 175. There are currently 248 homes pending close of escrow and active listings dropped by nearly 10% last week and now stand at 226 available homes, down from 252, and listed at an average of $62.70 per square foot. Here are some interesting bullet points on the Arizona housing market, more specifically the Phoenix area market, which includes Maricopa:

- In every price range, sales prices in $/SF are now higher than a year ago.

- Inventory is still falling below $200,000 and constraining sales volumes.

- Above $200,000, supply is rising and demand remains relatively weak.

- After a noticeable weak patch during the summer, prices have regained strength.

- Lender-owned inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

- Short sales are overtaking foreclosures as the primary mechanism to resolve mortgage debt problems.

There is a tremendous amount of demand for those homes priced at $100K or less in Maricopa, in fact if you are currently looking for a home in that price range you can expect each home to receive multiple offers, and often sell for over list price. The key is to be the first in the door with a strong, committed offer. There are currently many cash buyers on the market, which puts those finance customers at a slight disadvantage, but with the right strategy and knowledge of the market, you can secure that home you desire. My team and I live in and work exclusively in Maricopa and often times know of homes soon to be available, or just listed, which can benefit you as the buyer, so if you would like my assistance in securing that new home, please call or email me anytime. Of the 252 homes currently available, only 58 of them are priced at, or under $100k, so inventory is tight, and demand is strong, be sure your agent is working hard for you.

Inventory at the next level, $100K - $150K is a little more plentiful, with 91 homes listed in this price range, and buyer demand is still strong but not quite as hectic as the those homes $100K and less. Case in point - of the 175 recorded sales thus far this year, 99 of them are homes under $100K, 58 are homes priced between $100K-$150K, and 18 are homes above $150K.

The inventory of distressed homes and/or bank owned homes has fallen quite a bit over the last year, however there is still a fair amount of shadow inventory remaining (those homes in default but not yet foreclosed on), in fact there are 196 short sale homes listed as AWC, meaning that they have at least one offer if not multiple offers, and historically 50% of that inventory winds up in foreclosure and emerges on the market as a bank owned home, so we are not quite through with the “housing crisis” but I believe we are certainly on the back half. In fact, Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, and one of the reasons: loosening credit. The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago. However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability. Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings. Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.” So if you have been waiting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to buy – it’s now, and I would like to help. Call or email me anytime.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 1/28/12

2012-01-28T14:08:00Z

Market Notes January 28, 2012: A busy week on the market, but active listings remained consistent at 252, down from 254 last week, and listed at an average of $60.79 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow stand at 238, a mirror image of last week, and another 35 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $48.70 per square foot and bringing this years sales total now to 128 homes. 2012 may be one of our final transition years from a distressed housing market to a more normal traditional resale market, but one local observation, and one piece of national news suggests that the shadow inventory of distressed homes may vary well bleed into next year. Locally, nearly 50% of the foreclosure homes at the daily trustee auction have been postponed this last month, most likely as a result of deed issues or pending short sale contracts, but that number of postponements is unusually high. The postponement is usually just a week or two out, but lately we have been seeing 30-60 days postponements which again is unusual. This is also at a time when the foreclosure starts are down considerably year over year. The number of foreclosure actions initiated in 2011 was down 38.7 percent compared to 2010, according to a new report from Lender Processing Services. The company reported that delinquencies at the end of 2011 were down nearly 8 percent from the previous year and were 25 percent below their peak in January 2010. However, the overall foreclosure inventory remains near historic highs, at 4.11 percent as of the end of December.

The numbers illustrate the impact of foreclosure processing delays brought on by the robo-signing controversy that surfaced in the fall of 2010, the impact of which remains strong mostly in judicial states. LPS says foreclosure inventories in judicial states remain 2.5 times that of non-judicial, while foreclosure sale rates in non-judicial states stood at approximately four times that of their judicial counterparts in December. The company also found that half of all loans in foreclosure in judicial states have not made a payment in more than two years compared to 28 percent in non-judicial states. Still, on average, LPS says pipeline ratios – which is the amount of time it would take to clear the inventory of loans seriously delinquent and in foreclosure at the current rate – have declined significantly from earlier this year, again suggesting that 2012 may finally be the recovery year we have all been waiting for. The company’s data show that the states with the largest declines in non-current loans are all non-judicial, including Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and California.

Buyers currently on the market should understand that while the distressed inventory is waning, the “distressed” values will continue, as real appreciation will take a while to get a foot hold. This current Arizona market continues to be a once in a generational opportunity to take advantage of historically low home values and an improving economy which will serve your financial interests very well over the long run, and I think many primary residence buyers have discovered this, and are taking advantage of that dynamic as well as a more favorable lending environment. In fact, Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, and one of the reasons? Loosening credit. Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings. Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.” In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV. So conditions are favorable to those first time home buyers, as well as second home buyers that would like to leverage their capital. If you would like help navigating this real estate market, please call or shoot me an email at anytime. I would like to assist you find your place in the Sun.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 1/21/12

2012-01-21T13:49:00Z

Market Notes January 21, 2012: Active listings fell slightly over the last week in a market that is starting to heat back up. Available homes listed now stand at 254, listed at an average of $60.90 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow currently stand at 238, and another 35 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $48.39 per square foot, and bringing this years sales total now to 93 homes sold. Our winter weather thus far this year has been nearly perfect, sunny skies and high 60 degree temperatures have been the norm, and has facilitated the busy home shopping season very well. In addition to that, there is a tremendous amount of excitement about all of the development going on in the area that is soon to make Maricopa one of the best communities in the Phoenix area to live in. Intel is completing their new Fab Plant, which is just a ten minute drive away; the Banner Health Summit is putting the finishing touches on their 40,000 square foot health facility; the College of Central Arizona has begun building their new main campus and across the street from that, the City of Maricopa has begin construction on the new City Hall; the Ak Chin/Harrah’s Casino group continues to construct their new and ambitious 126,000 square foot entertainment complex featuring bowling alleys, movie theaters, restaurants, shops and an outdoor ampitheater, and the Gila River group has just signed on to build a large outdoor outlet mall featuring restaurants and lot’s of shopping – so it’s easy to see why so many people are interested in our small town. And that being said, values are slightly on the rise, but that being said, there still remains a fair amount of time for primary residence, and second home buyers to take advantage of historically low home values. While the foreclosure market has slowed, the amount of shadow inventory (those homes still in the foreclosure process) will ensure that those interested in purchasing still have approximately 12-18 months to secure one of those properties, however the demand in that area is substantial, so if you are actively pursuing a bank owned, or short sale home in the $60K to $90K range, it’s important to act quickly. Most, if not all of these properties receive multiple offers within the first day or two, so don’t delay in getting your offer in. I can tell you that in Arizona, the buyer has a ten day inspection period following the acceptance of a residential purchase contract, during which they can back out of the deal fro nearly any reason, so there are protections. If you would like more information regarding the process, please call or email me at anytime.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 1/14/12

2012-01-14T17:43:00Z

Market Notes January 14, 2012: Active listings inched up over the last week, now standing at 262 homes currently available, listed at an average of $61. 52 per square foot, down slightly from last weeks average of $63.59. 227 homes are currently pending close of escrow and only 28 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $47.40 per square foot and bringing this years sales total to 58 homes. It’s important to mention that the numbers I compile are strictly for the homes within the defined subdivisions of Maricopa, so if you would like a market analysis for homes on the acreage, please call or shoot me an email. As mentioned before, 2011 was the second best year in terms of residential resales for the Maricopa market, as 2,585 homes were sold, comparing only to 2009 wherein 2,788 homes closed escrow. I thought I would break down the 2011 sales into four categories: single level homes under 2000 square feet, and over 2000 square feet to include two sub categories; those with and without pools. Also, two story homes under 3000 square feet, and over 3000 square feet, with the same sub categories; those with pools and those without. These numbers will give you a broader understanding of the current market and demand for these homes:

Single Level: 2000 square feet or less

· No Pool – 924 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $45.34

· With Pool – 120 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $60.31

Single Level: 2000 square feet or more

· No Pool – 304 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $50.91

· With Pool – 82 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $62.59

Two Story Homes: 3000 square feet or less

· No Pool – 665 homes sold

· Avg Sold price per square foot - $36.30

· With Pool – 108 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $47.38

Two Story Homes: 3000 square feet or more

· No Pool – 267 homes sold

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $34.65

· With Pool – 108

· Avg. Sold price per square foot - $45.12

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 1/12/12

2012-01-12T16:31:00Z

Market Notes January 7, 2012: Active listings have built up, and buyer activity in the first week of the year has been brisk. The number of active listings in the area currently stand at 259, listed at an average of $63.59 per square foot, there is currently 228 homes pending close of escrow, and 30 homes closed escrow in this first week of the year, closing at an average of $48.51 per square foot, which is a solid gain from the $43 per square foot closings just 6 months ago, but still a very attractive number to buyers currently on the market, especially compared to the $60+ per square foot average in many other similar Phoenix markets. There is also still an anticipated wave of more distressed properties to come onto the market stemming from the “robo signing” debacle of last summer, and the number of foreclosure postponements over the last four months of 2011 that resulted from that issue. Another source of distressed properties not mentioned very often are those homes currently tied up in bankruptcy courts that will eventually be released, which will add to the volume that banks are still working through. This is all good news to the many interested buyers looking to take advantage of Phoenix’s housing market. In fact, the number of homes that resold in the greater Phoenix area rose for the 12th consecutive month in November, according to DataQuick.

When reviewing property sales in the combined Maricopa-Pinal counties, the data firm said 7,766 new and resale homes and condos closed in escrow. That is down 3.5% from October, but up 9% from last year, DataQuick said. Maricopa County houses the city of Phoenix, and is the fourth-most populous county in the country with more than 3 million residents. Sales of home priced between $100,000 and $200,000 rose the most in the region, with closings jumping 11.4% from a year ago. Closings on homes sold for less than $100,000 increased 4.6% year-over-year, while sales of homes priced from $200,000 to $600,000 grew a slight 0.7%.

In addition, sales of homes worth more than $800,000 rose 4.9% from last year, suggesting renewed interest in luxury homes when compared to mid-level sales. November's median sales price was at its highest point in a year, hitting $127,500. Investors and vacation homebuyers acquired 43.4% of the Phoenix areas homes sold during the month, paying a median price of $103,000, up slightly from $102,000 a year earlier. Cash buyers represented 40.8% of all November sales, up from 40.3% last year, according to DataQuick. Those buyers paid a median price of $96,000, up from $88,500 in October and $95,000 a year ago. Cash buyers and investors leaned towards distressed properties. Foreclosure resales represented 38.5% of November sales, while short-sales made up 15.9% of all resale activity.

During the month, lenders foreclosed on 3,307 homes, up 16.2% from October and 9.5% higher than a year earlier, and as I said earlier, there are more foreclosures to come, so if you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to buy – IT’S NOW! Let me know if I can be of help.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 12/18/11

2011-12-20T14:03:00Z

Market Notes December 18, 2011: Active listings fell slightly last week, standing now at 232 available homes, listed at an average of $60.36 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow jumped up to 256 from last weeks 238 homes pending, and 29 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $44.16 per square foot. So it was a busier week than the week prior, but a slower week than what we have averaged throughout the year, however that is typical this time of year as many people turn their attention to family, friends and the holidays. And that being said I would like to take a minute and wish all of you a very Merry Christmas and another New Year of health, wealth and prosperity. I have many blessing to be thankful for – a healthy and wonderful family and lots of friends, many of whom are previous clients that I had the privilege to assist either as a buyer or seller, and I hope and pray that I have the opportunity to meet, and help out, many more of you in the years to come. This will be the last market update for 2011, and my next update will be in a couple of weeks – January 1, 2012. And can you believe it is going to be 2012 already! Where does the time go? But I believe 2012 will be a very exciting year as the Banner Health Summit and the Intel Fab plant come on line and progress continues on the CAC campus and the Ak Chin Entertainment complex. Maricopa will certainly be a fun place to be.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 12/11/11

2011-12-11T13:05:00Z

Market Notes December 11, 2011: A very slow week in terms of closings suggests that the Holidays are soon upon us and most everyone’s focus is now on other matters. Only 14 homes closed escrow last week, quite a drop from last week’s 64 closings, and closing at an average of $44.19 per square foot. Active listings fell slightly to 242 available homes, listed at an average of $59.90 per square foot, and homes pending remained consistent at 238. Year to date, 2,405 homes have closed escrow in Maricopa, which outpaces last years sale total, but falls short of 2009’s record year. It’s important to mention that the numbers I compile are for those single family residences within the defined subdivisions of Maricopa, if you would like market information for homes on the acreage, or the patio homes in Province, please call or shoot me an email. As most anyone can tell you, the Maricopa market has been very busy the last few years, in fact since 2009, approximately 7,300 homes have exchanged hands, the majority of those of course being distressed properties either in foreclosure, or sold as a short sale, and I believe buyers can expect more distressed properties to come onto the market over the next 12-18 months. However the sign of a changing market is the emergence of new builds which are once again becoming a market factor. There are currently 15 actively listed new builds in the area, courtesy of DR Horton and Meritage, two very good builders who have weathered the storm, and 25 of those new builds have sold in the last 90 days. Meritage purchased the Province subdivision form Engle Homes approximately 2 years ago, and has done a great job bringing stability and a new focus on green energy homes to what was awarded the best active adult community in the United States back in 2006, and DR Horton continues building their subdivision of Homestead, a master planned community located just southeast of Rancho El Dorado. With the emergence of new builds, the Maricopa market now has quite a range of product for the discernible buyer to choose from - foreclosed and pre foreclosure homes (short sales), investor owned move-in ready homes, and now new builds complete with warranties and green energy technology. Couple that with the developing employer base and the soon to be added amenity of the Ak Chin Entertainment Complex, and it’s not difficult to see that the City of Maricopa is establishing itself as one of Phoenix’s best satellite community.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 12/4/11

2011-12-04T20:40:00Z

Market Notes December 4, 2011: An active week for Maricopa Real Estate – new listings increased by nearly 15% and 64 homes closed escrow last week, so it’s safe to say that our winter season has officially kicked into gear. Active listings now stand at 254, listed at an average of $61.55 per square foot, homes pending did decline a bit, now standing at 232, and as previously mentioned, 64 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $44.47 per square foot, bring this years sales total now to 2,391. Here are some interesting bullet points on the Arizona housing market, more specifically the Phoenix area market, which includes Maricopa:

- In every price range, sales prices in $/SF are now higher than a year ago.

- Inventory is still falling below $200,000 and constraining sales volumes.

- Above $200,000, supply is rising and demand remains relatively weak.

- After a noticeable weak patch during the summer, prices have regained strength.

- Lender-owned inventory is falling fast, especially at the lower price levels.

- Short sales are overtaking foreclosures as the primary mechanism to resolve mortgage debt problems.

90% of the Maricopa market is $200K or less, which helps explain the flurry of activity over the last couple of years, not too mention the newness of the community, and the developing employment and entertainment centers. The employment centers of Intel, Banner Health Summit and Harrah’s Casino are continuing to bring in more and more traditional home buyers, and the continued low home values, amenities, and small town feel of Maricopa continue to attract winter visitors, so I will admit my bias but arguably, Maricopa is one of the best satellite communities of the Phoenix area, if not the best and I encourage you to come visit us if you haven’t done so already. I think it’s also safe to say that Maricopa has weathered the housing crisis and has reached the bottom in terms of values

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 11/27/11

2011-11-27T15:02:00Z

Market Notes November 27, 2011: The pace of the Maricopa market has been remarkably consistent over the last 120 days, with active listings holding steady in the low to mid 200’s, homes pending in the mid 200’s and 35-45 homes closing escrow nearly every week. This week’s numbers are no different – there are currently 222 available homes listed in Maricopa, listed at an average of $60.57 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow stand at 243, and another 37 homes closed escrow last week, closing at an average of $44.06 per square foot, and brings this years sales total now to 2,327 homes, which has already outpaced last years sales total of 2,273, but off the pace of 2009, wherein 2,788 homes were sold. Because of the pace of the market, and the strength of buyer demand, values are inching up, but that shouldn’t deter current buyers, or lead them into thinking that they have missed their opportunity, as there is quite of bit of distressed inventory still to hit the market. Aside from the shadow inventory the banks are still working through, there are currently 213 short sales noted as AWC, meaning that they do have an offer with the bank, but historically you can expect about half of those short sales to wind up in foreclosure. I do have to mention though that that dynamic could change as many banks are now working short sales more effectively, and with more urgency in approving them, so 2012 could be the year of the short sale – so if you are a buyer that has shied away from short sales in the recent past because of the lengthy process, you may want to rethink that. My team and I live in Maricopa and work this area almost exclusively, so if you need help as a buyer navigating this market, we’d love to help. Aside from the central location, newness of the community and the small town feel, what’s really attractive about Maricopa now is the continued selection of homes at historic low values and the developing amenities and employment centers in the area. The Banner Health Summit is really starting to take shape and will open in 2012, the College of Central Arizona plans to break ground in December, Intel continues work on their new fab plant scheduled to open next year, and the Ak Chin/Harrah’s Casino group has just broken ground on a 162,000 square foot entertainment complex which will include 12 movies theaters, a 24 lane bowling alley and an outdoor ampitheater, situated amongst other restaurants and other shops. There has never been a better time to find your place in the sun and I’d like to help – call or email me anytime.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 11/20/11

2011-11-20T14:03:00Z

Market Notes November 20, 2011: The number of active listings fell again last week, now standing at 228 available homes, listed at an average of $60.48 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow stayed consistent at 245, and only 21 homes closed escrow last week, the smallest number of closings in nearly 4 months, closing at an average of $44.02 per square foot. In addition to the 228 available listings, there are 214 short sale listings noted as “AWC”, meaning one offer is submitted to the bank for approval, with the possibility of one or more offers in a backup position, and for buyers that have been having a difficult time securing a home, either through the multiple counter process with bank owned homes, or losing short sale offers to eventual foreclosure, writing a backup offer can be a smart strategy. Often times the buyer with the first offer withdraws before bank approval, giving those in the back up position the opportunity to purchase the home at the bank approved price. There is very little risk with this strategy, as there is no earnest deposit required, and the buyer can decline the banks approved price and choose not to perform, so throwing out a few back up offers is certainly worth the effort. As many of our clients can attest to, and probably just as obvious to those of you who have been following the market, home values in the Maricopa market have increased over the last year or two, and that fact has some buyers who have not yet secured a primary, or secondary home, a little distressed, but it’s important to keep some perspective. While home values two years ago were, on average, 10%-15% lower than they are today, in the long run, 5-10 years from now, today’s value is still quite low, and the prospects for substantial equity gains is still in play, and a huge factor for those buyers considering current purchases. Maricopa is still a very young community, and as our growth continues, home values will continue to rise accordingly, and helping a great deal with that growth, will be the addition of the Banner Health Summit and the College of Central Arizona next year, the continued expansion of Intel, and the recent announcement of the Ak Chin Entertainment Center, which is also planned to open next year. These additions to our community will not only serve to make Maricopa an even better place to raise a family, but also a safe and fun community to have a second home for that “winter get away”. If you would like help navigating your way through this very active market, please give me a call - I work and live in Maricopa, and find this community to be second to none.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 11/5/11

2011-11-05T14:46:00Z

Market Notes November 5, 2011: Active listings fell slightly once again this last week, now standing at 228 available homes, listed at an average of $61.20 per square foot, a listing average of which is the highest of the year. Homes pending close of escrow dropped slightly to 241, and 64 homes closed escrow last week, a very strong number, closing at an average of $44.24 per square foot. Notice the discrepancy of the listing average per square foot and the closing average per square foot - this is a result of the current disparity between the premium homes vs the more distressed properties. For example, a 3900 square foot, two story home in an average neighborhood, with little to no improvements, possibly banged up a bit, and no landscaping, may sell for around $35 per square foot, while a very desirable home; ie; single level with granite counter tops, above average neighborhood, pool, tile, etc. will sell for upwards of $75 per square foot. This is the current state of the Maricopa market, and while some buyers may shy away from paying upwards of $75 per square foot, they need to realize that once the market fully recovers, that home will be valued at north of $100 per square foot, so despite the increase in values over the last year or so, the Maricopa housing market is still ripe with historically low valued homes that will bring strong equitable gains down the road.

The other factor on the market is the emergence of the primary residence buyer as a result of a growing employer base. Intel continues it’s development of their new fabrication plant which is expected to bring thousands of new people to the area. The Banner Health Summit and the new College of Central Arizona will also bring more prospective primary home buyers to the area once their projects are completed, and the largest employer in the area, Harrah’s Casino, just completed their new 5 story hotel and business is strong. In fact, Harrah’s Ak-Chin Casino Resort is the largest contributor to the Pinal County economy, generating more than $205.3 million in economic activity in 2010, according to a study commissioned by the Ak-Chin Indian Community earlier this year. Nearly one-half of the total Ak-Chin Indian Community’s direct and indirect economic output of $437 million comes from the casino and hotel. So now is the time to secure your footing in what is arguably Phoenix’s best kept secret – Maricopa.

Nationally, and even locally, if this stagnant economy continues, the higher income demographics of the housing market will be the next casualty. Private investors in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) comprised of jumbo mortgage loans are dealing with a greater risk of strategic defaults, according to Moody’s. The company’s analysts base this assumption on the fact that jumbo RMBS have large populations of current borrowers with high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. Although it has by far the fewest delinquencies among outstanding loans, the jumbo sector has the potential for the highest volatility in losses going forward, Moody’s concluded.

“This is because it features a high number of current borrowers that are underwater on their mortgages and are more susceptible to default if the housing market does not turn around,” the agency explained. According to Moody’s the subprime sector faces the lowest potential for future performance deterioration because more of its weaker borrowers are already delinquent or have defaulted, leaving less room for losses to increase substantially. The company’s RMBS data show that defaults among always-current subprime borrowers have declined substantially since the beginning of 2010, indicating that the remaining borrowers are getting progressively stronger.

The jumbo sector, on the other hand, still faces the potential for a large increase in defaults. Unlike in the subprime sector, the stronger borrowers are the ones that have already left the jumbo pools rather than the ones that remain, Moody’s explained. Over 80 percent of jumbo loans are still current, but more than half of those borrowers are underwater on their mortgages and that proportion has risen significantly over the past few years, according to Moody’s report. Since home prices have been fairly stable in 2011, Moody’s says the increasing proportion of underwater jumbo borrowers likely reflects the ability of the stronger borrowers to refinance and exit the mortgage pools. Moody’s notes that default rates among always-current borrowers have not come down in the jumbo sector as much as in the subprime sector, meaning the pool of current borrowers has not strengthened as much over time.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 10/30/11

2011-10-30T13:41:00Z

Market Notes October 30, 2011: Active listings dropped slightly again this last week and now stand at 234 available homes, listed at an average of $59.13 per square foot, the lowest level of available homes of anytime during this last year. Homes pending Homes pending dipped to 246, and 43 homes closed escrow this last week bringing this year’s sales total now to 2,174, which is not quite the pace of 2009, but close. The Maricopa market, as with some other markets in the Phoenix Valley, has been extremely active over the last few years - in fact since 2008, approximately 9,400 single family residences have been sold, and considering that Maricopa has approximately 16,000 rooftops, it’s not difficult to realize that we are on the back side of this housing crisis, at least for the Maricopa area. That being said, values will continue to flat line, and there is more distressed inventory to sort through, so buyers still hoping to take advantage of the market, have about another 12-18 months to take advantage of this historically low valued market. One of the factors fueling this buying activity in the Phoenix Valley, are the baby boomers, who begin retiring this year, and are looking to secure their Place in the Sun, and when compared to all other comparable sun belt states; CA, NV, NM, TX, and even FL, Arizona not only offers the best values, but arguably the cleanest, newest, and best governed municipalities.

Phoenix-area homes sales in September jumped 17.7% from the year-ago period, spurred by an increase in home sales in the sub-$100,000 market. In September, the Phoenix area recorded 8,661 new and resale home and condo sales. Compared to August, sales fell 9.7%. But experiencing sales declines between August and September is normal, according to Data Quick. The research firm's market outlook covers home sales in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and is the fourth most populous county in the country, and Pinal County in the central part of Arizona.

September sales in the below $150,000 price range jumped 22.8% over September 2010, while deals for homes under $100,000 increased 32.1% over last year. Sales in the $200,000-to-$600,000 range showed a gain of 9.8% over last year, while transactions valued over $500,000 fell 3.7%. In the over-$800,000 market, sales fell 4.6% year-over-year. Buyers paid a median home sales price of $124,500 in September, up 5.2% from August. The August median price is 52.9% above the peak sales level of $264,000 reached in June 2006.

Activities driven by investors also declined last month. Foreclosure resales, cash-buying activity and lender repossessions also fell. Foreclosure homes and short sales, meanwhile, represented 61.2% of the Phoenix area resale market in September, and will continue to comprise the majority at least through the next year, but if you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right time to buy, wait no longer.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 10/23/11

2011-10-23T13:00:00Z

Market Notes October 23, 2011: Last weeks gains proved to be this week’s losses. Active listing dropped by 10% this last week, after gaining nearly 16% the week before, and now stand at 242 available homes, listed at an average of $58.72 per square foot. Homes pending close of escrow held steady at 253, and last week saw the lowest number of weekly closings for the entire year as only 15 homes closes escrow, bringing this years sales total now to 2,131, closing at an overall average $43.85 per square foot. All indications are that banks are on the verge of releasing more inventory, and following the robo signing scandal of this last summer, have a lot of inventory that has been backed up in the pipeline. Strong demand over the last year has pushed values up slightly, but the continued strong presence of short sales, and the anticipated push of bank inventoried homes, will keep values flat over the next six months at least. The national housing crisis has been the primary driving factor of this recession, and prolonging the resolution of it, is staling any recovery efforts, therefore the banking industry and the federal government are looking again at possible solutions.

Maricopa, Arizona Market Update 10/16/11

2011-10-16T14:10:00Z

Market Notes October 16, 2011: Active listings dropped slightly, after last weeks rather large gain, and now stand at 264 available homes, listed at an average of $58.31 per square foot. Homes pending inched up to 251, and 50 homes closed escrow last week, continuing that trend, and closings now stand at 2,116 year to date, closing at an average of $44.17 per square foot. Buyer activity remains fairly strong, but I do expect the supply of available homes to trend upwards based on recent reports of foreclosure activity. I don’t expect us however to reach the large number of available homes that we experienced in 2010, and early 2011, but buyers will still have a decent selection of homes to choose from and with values currently flat lining, prices will remain very attractive as well. There are currently just 31 actively listed bank owned homes, 13 available HUD homes, 61 short sales listed as “active”, and 214 short sales listed as “AWC, indicating that they at least one offer on the home. Many of the currently listed short sales do wind up as foreclosed, and bank owned properties, but they can be a good strategy for patient buyers, and I do expect short sale properties to continue to be a large factor on the market considering the stagnant economy.